Methodological elements for the comparative analysis of the first wave of the Covid-19 epidemic in France, Italy, and Spain

Néstor Aldea-Ramos

doi:10.14198/INGEO.19060

Autores/as

Néstor Aldea-Ramos Instituto de Demografía, Universidad París 1 Panteón-Sorbona, Francia

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.14198/INGEO.19060

Palabras clave:

Covid-19, epidemiología, demografía, mortalidad, salud.

Resumen

Los tres países europeos que conforman el litoral noroeste del Mediterráneo —Italia, Francia y España— notificaron sus primeros casos del nuevo coronavirus SARS-CoV-2 al comienzo del año 2020. La consiguiente epidemia impactó intensamente estos países, desafiando la eficiencia de sus sistemas de atención sanitaria, así como la capacidad y transparencia de sus estructuras de estadística pública. Dado que la estadística pública no estaba completamente adaptada a la nueva situación sanitaria, los datos oficiales disponibles no pudieron describir en su totalidad la epidemia de manera correcta. Esta contribución ha desarrollado un indicador derivado de la prevalencia del SARS-CoV-2 con el objetivo de analizar la dinámica espacio-temporal de la epidemia. Aunque el análisis no se ha aplicado en Francia debido a la falta de datos, el análisis comparativo entre España e Italia destaca ciertas similitudes y algunas diferencias, parcialmente atribuibles a las características demográficas propias de cada país, así como a los protocolos sanitarios puestos en marcha. Por último, la mortalidad durante la primera ola de la epidemia en los tres países ha sido analizada, mostrando una mayor tasa de mortalidad en España, si bien parte de ese exceso de mortalidad no se explica por el número de defunciones declaradas por causa de SARS-CoV-2.

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